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Table of Contents
Focus charts 2
A better year when the dust settles 3
Macro economy set to bottom out ................................................................................... 3
Our on-the-ground checks for 2022 outlook .................................................................... 3
Expect a better year after correction ................................................................................ 3
Focus on bottom up ....................................................................................................... 3
Macro economy set to bottom out 11
A disappointing 2H21 due to…..................................................................................... 11
Moderate recovery in 2H22 following a tough 1H22 ....................................................... 15
Macro policies turning more supportive .......................................................................... 18
Changed economic environment, changed approach ...................................................... 21
Our on-the-ground checks for 2022 outlook 22
Property sales managers confirm moderate easing ......................................................... 22
Consumer sentiment remains lacklustre despite moderate improvement ........................... 24
Material producers still cautious on demand ................................................................... 25
Mixed views from private SMEs ..................................................................................... 26
China NEV customers willing to pay premium for intelligent cockpit features .................... 28
Expect a better year after correction 30
A year full of events ..................................................................................................... 30
Growth stocks continued to underperform ...................................................................... 30
Policy and earnings concerns triggered performance divergence ..................................... 31
Dramatic sector rotation making sector selection difficult ................................................ 32
Overall negative earnings revision .................................................................................. 36
Valuation becoming attractive after correction ................................................................ 39
Positive policy signal likely outweighing difficult macro .................................................... 41
Focus on bottom-up 42
Sector outlook 44
Auto: A NEO year of high growth on restocking ............................................................. 44
Aviation sector ............................................................................................................. 45
Consumer ................................................................................................................... 46
Catering sector: Reshuffling before thriving .................................................................... 49
Energy: Consolidation................................................................................................... 50
Express Delivery .......................................................................................................... 52
Financials: insurance and broker ................................................................................... 56
China banks: 2022, the year of stability ......................................................................... 57
Healthcare .................................................................................................................. 61
Internet: Resetting growth expectation amid headwinds .................................................. 62
Industrials .................................................................................................................... 63
Macau gaming ............................................................................................................. 66
Materials ..................................................................................................................... 67
Property ...................................................................................................................... 69
Renewables and utilities: acceleration in energy transition to renewables .......................... 70
China technology ......................................................................................................... 71