商品市场展望2018（Commodity Markets Outlook2018）

时光不老

商品市场展望2018（Commodity Markets Outlook2018）
pdf
Table of Contents
Figures
Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................... v
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 1
Box: The implication of tariffs for commodity markets .................................................................... 4
Special Focus: The Changing of the Guard: Shifts in Industrial Commodity Demand ......................... 9
Commodity market developments and outlook ............................................................................. 23
Energy ................................................................................................................................ 25
Agriculture .......................................................................................................................... 29
Metals and Minerals ............................................................................................................. 35
Appendix A: Historical commodity prices and price forecasts.......................................................... 39
Appendix B: Supply-Demand balances......................................................................................... 47
Appendix C: Description of price series, Technical notes................................................................ 79
Figure 1 Commodity market developments ................................................................. 2
Figure B.1 Commodity market developments and trade tensions ..................................... 5
Figure SF.1 Developments in commodity markets ....................................................... 12
Figure SF.2 Energy consumption ............................................................................... 13
Figure SF.3 Intensity of metals consumption ............................................................... 14
Figure SF.4 Consumption of industrial commodities per capita, and income per capita.... 15
Figure SF.5 Income elasticities of demand................................................................... 19
Figure 2 Oil market developments ............................................................................. 25
Figure 3 Oil supply developments .............................................................................. 26
Figure 4 Oil market prospects.................................................................................... 27
Figure 5 Coal and natural gas developments ................................................................ 28
Figure 6 Agricultural price developments ................................................................... 29
Figure 7 Supply conditions for grains and edible oils .................................................... 30
Figure 8 Demand conditions for grains and oilseeds ..................................................... 31
Figure 9 Beverage commodity markets........................................................................ 32
Figure 10 Agricultural raw materials markets ............................................................... 33
Figure 11 Fertilizer market developments.................................................................... 34
Figure 12 Industrial metals market developments......................................................... 36
Figure 13 Precious metals price developments ............................................................. 37
Table 1 Nominal price indexes and forecast revisions ............................................... 3
Table SF.1 Long-run income elasticities of demand for commodities in the literature 19
Table SF.2 Estimation results and income elasticities ............................................. 19
Table A.1 Commodity prices .............................................................................. 41
Table A.2 Commodity prices forecasts in nominal U.S. dollars ............................... 43
Table A.3 Commodity prices forecasts in constant U.S. dollars (2010=100) ............. 44
Table A.4 Commodity price index forecasts (2010=100) ........................................ 45

hbshcy

谢谢分享