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Executive Summary 1
Key forecasts 5
Policy normalisation; EM
trepidation 6
Global economic forecasts 35
GDP 36
Consumer prices 38
Policy rates 40
Long rates 41
Exchange rates vs USD 42
Exchange rate vs EUR & GBP 43
Consumer spending 44
Investment spending 45
Exports 46
Industrial production 47
Wage growth 48
Budget balance 49
Current account 50
North America 52
US 52
Canada 54
Asia Pacific 56
Mainland China 56
Japan 58
India 60
Australia 62
South Korea 64
Indonesia 66
Taiwan 68
Thailand 70
Malaysia 72
Singapore 74
Hong Kong 76
Philippines 78
New Zealand 80
Eurozone 82
Eurozone 82
Germany 84
France 86
Italy 88
Spain 90
Other Western Europe 92
UK 92
Switzerland 94
Sweden 96
Norway 98
CEEMEA 100
Poland 100
Russia 102
Turkey 104
Saudi Arabia 106
South Africa 108
Latin America 110
Brazil 110
Mexico 112
Argentina 114
Colombia 116
Chile 118
Disclosure appendix 122
Disclaimer 124