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Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii
Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii
Tables ........................................................................................................................................... viii
Summary ........................................................................................................................................ ix
Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................... xii
Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... xiii
1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1
Applying the Project Framework to Australia and New Zealand ............................................................ 1
Organization of This Report ..................................................................................................................... 7
2. Australia’s and New Zealand’s Diplomatic and Political Relationships .................................... 9
Strengthening Relations with the United States ....................................................................................... 9
Managing Growing Friction in Relations with China ............................................................................ 13
Regional Outlooks Shifting Along with Growing Chinese Power and Influence .................................. 18
Intensifying U.S.-China Competition Presents Serious Challenges ....................................................... 20
Expanding Engagement with Other Countries in the Region ................................................................. 24
Australia Steps Up in the Pacific Islands ................................................................................................ 27
New Zealand Bolsters Its Position in the Pacific Islands ....................................................................... 30
Politics and Public Opinion in Australia and New Zealand ................................................................... 32
3. Australia’s and New Zealand’s Economic Relationships ......................................................... 36
China’s Growing Importance as a Trade Partner and Export Destination ............................................. 36
The United States and Its Allies Are Leading Sources of Foreign Direct Investment ........................... 38
China’s Other Potential Economic Levers: Tourism and Students ........................................................ 39
4. Australia’s and New Zealand’s Defense Relationships ............................................................ 41
Strengthening the U.S.-Australia Alliance ............................................................................................. 41
Strengthening U.S.–New Zealand Security Ties .................................................................................... 46
Australia’s Defense Relations with China .............................................................................................. 48
New Zealand’s Defense Ties with China ............................................................................................... 49
Enhancing Australia’s Indo-Pacific Defense and Security Ties ............................................................. 50
New Zealand Is Building Regional Defense Ties .................................................................................. 58
5. Assessment and Outlook ........................................................................................................... 59
Outlook for Regional Position and Partnerships Appears Strong .......................................................... 59
Outlook for Diplomatic Relations Appears Strong Overall ................................................................... 60
Outlook for Domestic Factors Presents a Mixed Picture ....................................................................... 61
Outlook for Economic Relations Reflects Growing Chinese Influence ................................................. 63
Outlook for Defense Relationships Appears Very Strong ...................................................................... 63
6. Options for the United States, U.S. Department of Defense, and U.S. Air Force .................... 67
Options for the United States .................................................................................................................. 68
Options for the U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Air Force .................................................... 69
Appendix A. Detailed Framework Variable Coding .................................................................... 74
Appendix B. Australian Defense Cooperation .............................................................................. 83
References ..................................................................................................................................... 85