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CONTENTS
Message from Sta Executives ...................................................................................................................................................................2
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 3
Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................................................5
How We Got Here............................................................................................................................................................................................8
Understanding the Scope .............................................................................................................................................................................11
The Aggregate Costs of U.S.-China Decoupling ..................................................................................................................................12
Aggregate Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................................18
A. Aviation Industry ...................................................................................................................................................................................19
Industry Snapshot .................................................................................................................................................................................19
U.S.-China Engagement .....................................................................................................................................................................23
Analysis: What Are the Costs? .........................................................................................................................................................26
Interpretation: What Does It Mean for the U.S. Economy? ......................................................................................................33
B. Semiconductor Industry .....................................................................................................................................................................34
Industry Snapshot ................................................................................................................................................................................34
U.S.-China Engagement .....................................................................................................................................................................36
Analysis: What Are the Costs? ......................................................................................................................................................... 40
Interpretation: What Does It Mean for the U.S. Economy? ......................................................................................................46
C. Chemicals Industry ..............................................................................................................................................................................48
Industry Snapshot................................................................................................................................................................................48
U.S.-China Engagement .....................................................................................................................................................................53
Analysis: What Are the Costs? .........................................................................................................................................................55
Interpretation: What Does It Mean for the U.S. Economy? ......................................................................................................59
D. Medical Device Industry ................................................................................................................................................................... 60
Industry Snapshot ............................................................................................................................................................................... 60
U.S.-China Engagement ......................................................................................................................................................................61
Analysis: What Are the Costs? .........................................................................................................................................................64
Interpretation: What Does It Mean for the U.S. Economy? ......................................................................................................67
Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 69
Appendix 1: Overview of U.S. Decoupling Policy Toolbox ................................................................................................................72
Appendix 2: Overview of U.S. Decoupling Literature .........................................................................................................................79
Methodology Appendices ...........................................................................................................................................................................81
A. Aviation ....................................................................................................................................................................................................81
B. Semiconductors ....................................................................................................................................................................................83
C. Chemicals ...............................................................................................................................................................................................84
D. Medical Devices .................................................................................................................................................................................. 86