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CONTENTS
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 3
Why National IT and Digital Leadership Is Important ............................................................. 6
Where Do Nations Stand? .................................................................................................... 7
America Leads ................................................................................................................ 7
China Responds, Mostly Succeeds, and Is Poised for Further Success ................................ 10
Europe Responds, But Largely Fails ................................................................................ 13
Japan and the Four Asian Tigers Respond, and Partially Succeed....................................... 17
Nation States Still Matter .................................................................................................. 19
Major Centers of National Power in the Digital World ........................................................... 21
The United States: The Major Advocate for and Driver of Global IT and Digital
Innovation and Progress ................................................................................................. 21
China: Seeking Global Hegemony Through Technology ...................................................... 22
Europe: Precaution and Protection .................................................................................. 23
The “UNCTAD South”: The Oppressed Seeking “Digital Alms” .......................................... 25
The Unaligned: Going Forward With Heads Down ............................................................. 28
The Disruptors: Russia and Other Digital Scofflaws ........................................................... 29
Undesirable Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 29
Scenario 1: EU “Regulatory Imperialism” Succeeds, and America Is Isolated...................... 29
Scenario 2: Anti-tech Forces Turn America Into the EU and China Prevails ......................... 32
Scenario 3: The EU Won’t Budge .................................................................................... 34
Scenario 4: Nations Craft a “Digital WTO” ....................................................................... 35
Scenario 5: China Wins the Minds (if not the Hearts) of UNCTAD-Nations .......................... 37
Scenario 6: The Splinternet Emerges .............................................................................. 38
Scenario 7: The United States Spends Much of Its Political Capital on Promoting the
Open Global Internet ..................................................................................................... 38
An Action Agenda for Desirable Scenarios ........................................................................... 39
Scenario 8: U.S., EU, and Non-aligned Nations Isolate, Punish, and Defend Against
“Scofflaws” .................................................................................................................. 40
Scenario 9: The United States Forms an Anglo-American (and Friends) Alliance ................. 41
Scenario 10: EU, United States, and Non-aligned Nations Cooperate Against China ............ 41
Scenario 11: The United States Approach Prevails in Developing Markets........................... 44
Principles for a New Realpolitik Doctrine in U.S. Global Digital Policy ................................... 45
Principle 1: Unabashedly Support IT and Digital Innovation, Rejecting the Techlash
Narrative and Policies .................................................................................................... 45
Principle 2: Embrace IT and Digital “National Developmentalism” (Smart, Active
Policies to Support IT Innovation and Adoption) and Bring More Nations Into That Orbit ...... 46
Principle 3: Work to Limit China’s IT and Digital Progress, Especially When It Is Based
on Innovation Mercantilism ............................................................................................ 48
Principle 4: Actively Fight Foreign IT and Digital Protectionism ......................................... 48
Principle 5: Embrace IT and Digital Free Trade, Especially With Like-Minded Nations ......... 48
Principle 6: Resist Authoritarian Influences in the IT and Digital Economy but Remain
Focused on Key U.S. Interests ........................................................................................ 48
Principle 7: Defend the Private Sector’s Core Role in IT and Digital Governance .................. 49
Principle 8: Defend the Principle That Big Is Not Bad, and Often Is Superior ...................... 49
Principle 9: Defend Innovation-Oriented Regulation.......................................................... 49
Principle 10: Defend the Mostly Open Internet ................................................................ 49
Principle 11: Support a Robust Domestic IT and Digital Policy That Ensures U.S.
Global Leadership ......................................................................................................... 50
Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 50
Endnotes ......................................................................................................................... 52