全球经济中期前景展望（英）

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全球经济中期前景展望（英）
Executive Summary: Chapters 3 and 4 .................................................................................................................ii
Chapter 3 Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic ............................................................................ 131
Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 133
Spread of the pandemic .......................................................................................................... 134
The economics of the pandemic: Shocks and spillovers........................................................... 136
Initial impact: Economic activity, financial and commodity markets ...................................... 137
Global activity and trade ................................................................................................ 137
Global financial conditions ............................................................................................. 138
Commodity markets....................................................................................................... 138
Short-term growth impact ...................................................................................................... 139
Spillovers ....................................................................................................................... 140
Vulnerabilities: Magnifying the short-term impact......................................................... 141
Long-term growth effects ........................................................................................................ 144
Implications for potential output ................................................................................... 145
Implications for productivity ......................................................................................... 149
Unique nature of the pandemic: Magnifying the long-term impact ............................... 150
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 158
Box 3.1 How do deep recessions affect potential output in EMDEs? .................................. 146
Box 3.2 How do disasters affect productivity? ..................................................................... 151
Annex 3.1 The macroeconomic effects of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review......... 160
Annex 3.2 Bayesian vector autoregression model .................................................................... 170
Annex 3.3 EMDE vulnerability index..................................................................................... 170
Annex 3.4 Long-term implications of recessions: Data and methodology ............................... 171
References............................................................................................................................... 172
Chapter 4 Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil in the Pandemic .............................................................181
Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 183
Drivers of the oil price plunge ................................................................................................. 185
Comparison with previous periods of disruptions ................................................................... 187
Implications of oil price plunges for the global economy ......................................................... 188
Past oil price plunges ...................................................................................................... 188
The 2014-16 oil price plunge ......................................................................................... 190
The 2020 oil price plunge .............................................................................................. 192
Box 4.1 Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge ................................................................ 193
Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 198
Annex 4.1 Methodology: Decomposition of oil price movements ........................................... 199
Annex 4.2 Oil price plunges since 1970 .................................................................................. 199
Annex 4.3 Methodology: Impact of oil price plunges on output ............................................. 200
References ............................................................................................................................... 201