哈佛大学-中国的借贷战略和对美国外交政策影响（英文版）

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哈佛大学-中国的借贷战略和对美国外交政策影响（英文版）
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Over the past decade, China has extended hundreds of billions of
dollars in loans to countries that often can’t afford to repay them.
Through a process the authors have termed “debtbook diplomacy,”
China has begun to leverage this accumulated debt to achieve its strategic
aims.
Three primary strategic goals the authors believe China could target
with this technique are: filling out a “String of Pearls” to solve its
“Malacca Dilemma” and project power across vital South Asian trading
routes; undermining and fracturing the U.S.-led regional coalition
contesting Beijing’s South China Sea (SCS) claims; and enabling the
People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to push through the “Second
Island Chain” into the blue-water Pacific.
The goal of this report is to analyze the future of debtbook diplomacy:
which countries are vulnerable to Chinese coercion; how U.S. strategic
interests will be impacted; and how U.S. policymakers can mitigate the
effects of this strategy.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary........................................................................1
2. Introduction................................................................................... 3
3. Debtbook Diplomacy and China’s Geoeconomic Toolkit...........6
Debtbook in Action: Anatomy of a Deal ...................................................................... 9
4. U.S. Interests at Stake.................................................................. 11
5. Criteria for Assessing Strategic Vulnerabilities.........................13
6. Country Vulnerability Assessment .............................................15
7. Strategic Outlook........................................................................ 16
Debtbook West/String of Pearls.................................................................................17
Debtbook South/SCS Influence..................................................................................18
Debtbook East/Second Island Chain and Beyond....................................................19
8. Case Study Country Analysis......................................................21
8.1 Debtbook West: String of Pearls.....................................................................21
8.2 Debtbook South: ASEAN and Southeast Asia Maritime Influence..............36
8.3 Debtbook East: The Second Island Chain and Beyond.................................41
9. Recommendations ......................................................................46

yueshi

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