2022年中国宏观经济展望（英）

爱闹硪們

2022年中国宏观经济展望（英）
2022年中国宏观经济展望（英）.pdf (1.43 MB, 下载次数: 0, 售价: 30 金钱)

2022-7-15 16:14 上传

点击文件名下载附件
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 6
I. Recent Economic Developments ................................................................................................... 12
Global growth has peaked ........................................................................................................................... 12
The pace of China’s recovery slowed after the cyclical upturn .................................................................. 13
Strong exports partly offset weak domestic demand .................................................................................. 16
Sustained current account surplus contributed to RMB strength ................................................................ 17
Stable labor market and recovering incomes .............................................................................................. 18
CPI inflation remained moderate amid surging PPI prices ......................................................................... 21
Sharp fiscal consolidation as the government held back fiscal spending ................................................... 22
Tighter regulations triggered a sharp adjustment in the real estate sector .................................................. 23
China’s CO2 emissions growth slowed after surging in early 2021 ............................................................ 27
Deleveraging efforts weighed on credit growth .......................................................................................... 29
Regulatory curbs contributed to a modest reduction in debt ....................................................................... 31
II. Outlook, Risks, and Policy Considerations ................................................................................. 34
Global outlook ............................................................................................................................................ 34
China outlook .............................................................................................................................................. 35
Risks ......................................................................................................................................................... 41
Policy implications: From recovery to high-quality growth, a difficult re-balancing act ........................... 42
III. China’s Services Trade Performance: Strong Growth but Unrealized Potential ................... 47
Services are driving China’s structural change ........................................................................................... 47
Services top Chinese employment but at a much lower level than in advanced economies ....................... 48
China’s services trade performance: an expanding export basket but untapped potential remains ............ 49
The changing structure of China’s services trade: modern exports, traditional imports ............................. 51
Domestically produced services are increasingly important for Chinese manufacturing exports .............. 53
China’s services trade regime: healthy growth despite a restrictive regulatory environment..................... 54
China’s investment regime remains restrictive despite recent liberalization steps ..................................... 58
Final thoughts.............................................................................................................................................. 62
References .................................................................................................................................................. 64