IMF：世界经济展望：漫长而艰难的上升

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IMF：世界经济展望：漫长而艰难的上升
Assumptions and Conventions viii
Further Information x
Data xi
Preface xii
Foreword xiii
Executive Summary xv
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1
Global Economy Climbing Out of the Depths, Prone to Setbacks 1
Considerations for the Forecast 6
Partial Recovery from Deep Recession Expected in 2021 8
Medium-Term Growth Reflects Damage to Supply Potential 12
Inflation Is Expected to Remain Low 15
Subdued Trade Flows, Smaller Deficits and Surpluses 16
Significant Risks of More Severe Growth Outcomes 18
Near-Term Policy Priorities: Ensure Adequate Resources for Health Care, Limit Economic Damage 21
Enhancing Multilateral Cooperation 22
Policies to Address Medium- and Long-Term Challenges 24
Scenario Box 1. Alternative Scenarios 28
Box 1.1. Revised World Economic Outlook Purchasing-Power-Parity Weights 31
Box 1.2. Inclusiveness in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the
Impact of COVID-19 34
Box 1.3. Rising Small and Medium Enterprise Bankruptcy and Insolvency Risks:
Assessment and Policy Options 38
Box 1.4. Social Unrest during COVID-19 40
Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts 43
Box 1.SF.1. What Happened with Global Carbon Emissions in 2019? 54
References 61
Chapter 2. The Great Lockdown: Dissecting the Economic Effects 65
Introduction 65
Cross-Country Evidence on Lockdowns and Economic Activity 67
Assessing the Impact of Lockdowns Using High-Frequency Data 68
The Unequal Effects of Lockdowns across Gender and Age Groups 70
Lockdowns and COVID-19 Infections 73
Individual Lockdown Measures and Nonlinear Effects 74
Conclusions 75
Box 2.1. An Overview of the Literature on the Economic Impact of Lockdowns 77
Box 2.2. The Role of Information Technology Adoption during the COVID-19 Pandemic:
Evidence from the United States 79
References 81
Chapter 3. Mitigating Climate Change—Growth- and Distribution-Friendly Strategies 85
Introduction 85
The Mitigation Toolkit: How Have Policies Worked So Far? 89
How to Reach Net Zero Emissions by 2050 92
How to Build Inclusion 103
Conclusion 106
Box 3.1. Glossary 107
Box 3.2. Zooming In on the Electricity Sector: The First Step toward Decarbonization 108
References 110
Statistical Appendix 115
Assumptions 115
What’s New 116
Data and Conventions 116
Country Notes 117
Classification of Countries 118
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 119
Table A. Classification, by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in
Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2019 120
Table B. Advanced Economies, by Subgroup 121
Table C. European Union 121
Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, by Region and Main Source of
Export Earnings 122
Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, by Region, Net External Position,
and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 123
Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 125
Table G. Key Data Documentation 126
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 136
List of Tables 140
Output (Tables A1–A4) 141
Inflation (Tables A5–A7) 148
Financial Policies (Table A8) 153
Foreign Trade (Table A9) 154
Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 156
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 163
Flow of Funds (Table A14–A15) 167
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 171
IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, October 2020 181